Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Maybe we SHOULD BAILOUT everyone!

Everyone is arguing about whether and how to bail out the auto industry. What is so frustrating is that neither the Republicans, the Democrats, nor the Financial Titans are giving even a casual thought to the American People! And the media is standing by with nothing more than cluelessness on their faces.

What do I mean by this? Well, this used to be a country premised on the idea that its wealth was built by millions of individuals each making economically intelligent decisions. The collective of those decisions, without the massive burden of mis-regulation, generated the billions of micro-decisions that forced the most economic path to industry and prosperity. These billions of micro-decisions, not centralized mis-regulations, created the optimum valued automobiles, trains, planes, chemical factories, and computers. Forty years of regulations and sham-de-regulations slowly unwound the great infrastructure created by our fathers.

With recent years of socialist-style education and half-baked regulations, economic risk was concentrated into an obscure area of the financial-insurance industrial complex. Now that all that economic risk collapsed us, at least on paper, everyone wants to throw out our basic form of economic governance -- our principle of individual micro-decisions -- in favor of socialist-style takeover of what remains of the free market.

Even if you do not agree with my interpretation of our recent economic history, it is still worth hearing my thoughts to regain our one global competitive advantage -- to not destroy our ability to individually "vote" as a collective in the economic world.

It seems to me that we have a Social Security Administration that has been completely silent during a crisis that is nothing short than the very heart and essence of what social security is all about. Further, for at least a decade, we have been debating how to finance the future of Social Security. If we are going to bail out any industry in exchange for an equity position, it seems that Social Security should be the one doing it!

If Social Security were given the $700 Billion, or $1 or $2 Trillion, then we can empower each and every citizen to choose which companies to bail out. For example, Ford or GM can be allowed to advertise that the are offering Treasury Shares through the Social Security Administration at some set price. Citizens can log in or phone an automated system to "buy" those shares from their portion.

To protect individuals from bad choices, one half of all the purchases are pooled, so that half of any individual's fund represents the collective decision of all and one half represents their individual choices.

If a company is worthy of the trust of the citizenry, then they will raise the additional capital they need. With time, the success of American business will grow the wealth of their Social Security accounts.

In this way, we don't have to have Congress pick and choose who gets a bailout and who doesn't. With a 10-15% approval rating, why in the world would we want them making such decisions, anyway?! Here, the people can choose who is worthy, whether it is a smaller industry with a plant in their town, or a big automotive corporation. The billions of mico-decisions will determine the best investments for the $700 Billion to $2 Trillion that is currently needed.

This method will also instill a greater dedication to American business by the citizens and will also, over time, guide American businesses to make corporate decisions that are more in line with the welfare of Americans.

Thus, we turn this current financial crisis into a shining opportunity for America. We turn a rank socialist event into one that celebrates capitalism in a way that spreads the wealth for everyone. In a way, this is the time for America to coin a new economic philosophy -- maybe we can call it "social capitalism" -- where we use socialist concepts to make capitalism work for all classes in our society.

One final comment. We have the same factories today that we had in July 2008, before the economic collapse. The same miles of highways, houses, cars, planes. No army or terrorist came in and destroyed what we have. In fact, our energy costs are a small fraction today over that of July 2008. Our economic woes are borne on paper, based on a complex set of rules and regualtions. Our true wealth is just the same today as it was before the crisis. Don't let them make you lose sight of that.

So, maybe WE SHOULD BAILOUT EVERYONE. At least, put those decisions back with the people.

(c) 2008 Knobloch. All rights reserved. Contact for publication permission. http://www.charlesknobloch.blogspot.com/

Monday, November 3, 2008

Now is the time for a New Society approach to housing

The entire world economy is reeling right now from a great American social experiment. We tried to significantly expand the proportion of home ownership in the United States. As foreclosures and general fear mount, a common cry is that we gave loans to people who should have never gotten a loan.

There is a lot of wisdom in these common voices. But, it does not address the question of whether it is possible to significantly expand home ownership? Will we always fail, always throw ourselves into a great depression every time we try?

The answer may lie in our recent experiences and even our experiences of the 1920's and 1930's. Perhaps our entire approach to home ownership is wrong.

In fact, if you think about it, our long-established way of buying and selling homes -- and home financing -- is extremely impractical and not very liquid. Every time a family wants to move into a new home -- move for purposes of job or school -- a lot of events must fall into place at just the right time. The family must have a buyer for the present home, and they must have found a home they truly want. They must also be able to finance the transition and they have to get an adequate selling price and affordable buying price. On top of that, most transactions come with a 10% transaction load (6% for the realtor and 4% for closing costs). Under these conditions, it is actually a wonder that we have as many home transactions as we do!

An even closer look further reveals the ridiculous nature of home financing. First, a loan is based on some appraised value of the property. The loan is secured by the home itself. But, payments are based on the income of the individual. Except for independently wealthy individuals, who can guarantee that their income will be consistent every month over a thirty year period? And, when a prudent home owner sees a coming drop in income, that is the very time when the costs to downsize a home skyrocket. The current home financing system is tailored not to the general population, but only to the lucky and the better off.

That's what makes our desire to give home ownership to everyone so interesting. Those who rent, rather than own, are actually making economically wise and prudent decisions. They are financing shelter in a way that matches their expectations of future income. The system itself is designed to limit the proportion of the population who should own homes.

So, we have two basic problems with American home financing. One, it assumes a long-term steady income of the purchaser, for periods up to thirty years. Two, it ties the financing to a particular piece of property, making it difficult for the purchaser to resize. Further, there is a 10% skim built into the system every time a property changes hands.

Elimination of these two (or even three) problems will go a long way towards some Great Society dream of giving everyone a chance at home ownership. Until we decouple home financing from a fixed rate of equity repayment, and decouple financing from the actual piece of property, the American method of home financing will only serve a small portion of the population. It will dis-serve the rest of the population.

Worse yet, until this issue is squarely addressed, any attempts to expand home ownership will put this country, and the world, at repeated risks of great depression.

(c) 2008 Knobloch. All rights reserved. Contact for publication permission. http://www.charlesknobloch.blogspot.com/

Friday, October 31, 2008

Post Election Bailout – American Economic Recovery Operation

Editors note: this plan was conceived while trying to imagine the possible changes that could occur under a new administration, based on the past speeches given by Barrack Obama. For some, this may bring great joy. For others, great dread. Either way, it is time to start visualizing the kinds of change that would be possible, if not downright inevitable.

If America is truly willing to embrace change, then the following post-election bailout plan is sure to be the answer to solve many of today’s current issues. If put into effect, these new solutions will solve many of the long-standing problems we have encountered in implementing our Great Society. Below is a discussion how the plan will work.

Guided by the Social Security Administration’s mandate to provide true social security, every American will be given access to pension, health care, food, and shelter. One of the first pressing needs is to provide shelter and day-to-day credit to buy food. The first stage of the American Economic Recovery Operation does just that. Under this plan, shortly after the election, the banks will be directed to issue to every adult 100,000 Ameros, a new currency, for the limited purpose of home financing and payment of outstanding credit card interest. The Amero will be given a fixed exchange rate of one Amero to one Euro for a guaranteed period of five years.

Since the banks are now controlled by the government, implementation will be mandated and swiftly accomplished. A couple with $5000 in credit card interest debt and a $100,000 mortgage will be allowed to pay off that mortgage, the $5000 credit card interest debt and still have perhaps 95,000 Ameros to save for future home upgrades and future credit card interest payments. The banks will be required to accept Ameros in lieu of mortgage payments, mortgage payoffs, and credit card interest payments. In return, the banks can use accumulated Ameros towards their reserve calculations.

Later, the Ameros will be usable for purchase of universal health care, once a nationalized universal health care system is established. Every person under the age of 18 will be allowed to pay for healthcare using Ameros.

In this way, the Great Society dream of providing everyone with their own home, their own shelter, may finally be realized. Yes, under a new Democratic Congress and Administration, ideas such as this one are now readily plausible, if not outright practical. Perhaps more than plausible or practical, perhaps actually a part of the mandate for change.

(c) 2008 Knobloch. All rights reserved. Contact for publication permission. http://www.charlesknobloch.blogspot.com/

Friday, October 24, 2008

It's not a bailout -- it is a pullout.....or a shakedown?

The current financial “crisis” and government “bailout” is now all starting to make sense. What we are really experiencing is a scramble to pull out as much money from the federal government as possible before the election. Rather, it is really taking on the appearance of a bold-faced shakedown of our elected officials. How so? Well, it is becoming more and more clear that bad regulations are at the heart of the meltdown – the regulatory switch from mark-to-model to mark-to-market just at the point when most of the debt instruments would immediately lose all market value if switched from mark-to-model valuation.

This regulatory meddling in banking affairs forced the banks into only no-win options – forced write downs to “worthless” of otherwise valuable assets. The Republican legislators forced the first $850 Billion bailout to include the power to reverse the bad mark-to-market regulation. But, guess what? It is not being implemented. Instead, another round of shakedown of the government is in the works. Reversing the bad mark-to-market decision, now, will jeopardize the plan to extract more dollars from the government.

The actions are becoming painfully clear: whether Obama or McCain wins, our country is now on a fast-paced march towards socialism. It is Ann Rand (“Atlas Shrugged”) on a mega-scale. The financial powerhouses need to extract as much money out of our government as they can --- remove as much power as 1.5 – 2.5 trillion dollars can buy --- and as quickly before the election as possible --- before the United States finally closes the door to free enterprise.

It may not be one person doing it, or some huddle of masterminds, but it is the collective of thousands of people doing it. The financial world is not in crisis – it is actually acting intelligently. The intelligent thing to do is shake down the government for all it is worth – or as much as can be gotten, then regroup as much power as is possible later. Until the depths of socialism can be determined, this is a most intelligent strategy --- as it will be some time before anyone will be able to tell where and in what sectors, if any, there may be opportunity to use private capital. And, the entities who hold the cash will be needed to help enable the socialist agenda. So, whether the money will be used to prop up token capitalist activities in a shrunken free market, or the money used to drive new social programs, the outcome is the same --- the holder of the money will have the most say.

Since the quirky government regulations forced our bankers into this situation, what other option do they have? So, now is the time to get every penny out of the government as is possible --- even if that means panicking a collapse of the financial system in order to drive legislators & candidates into a panic.

(c) 2008 Knobloch. All rights reserved. Contact for publication permission. www.charlesknobloch.blogspot.com

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Knobloch Bailout Plan – Media Kit A


“Bail out guarantees future funds for Social Security.”

Summary

• Social Experiment Failed and why
• Need to Address Underlying Mortgages & Foreclosures
• Plan fixes flaw in social experiment, addresses current crisis, keeps people in their homes
• Homeowners able to pay their mortgages
• Bailout funds Social Security

Text

But, there is one issue that is being missed by all the politics. As a country, we engaged in a social experiment to greatly increase the level of home ownership. Although we adjusted the rules to bring millions more into home ownership, we didn’t address their lifestyles and the reasons why they were not able to own homes in the past. We still applied the old mortgage customs to lifestyles that are adverse to the customary way of paying for a home. We did not address the basic way to gain ownership in a way that accommodates the lifestyles of those who traditionally do not live in a way to gain home ownership under the old customs.

Charles Knobloch of Arnold & Knobloch looks at it a different way. “If we fundamentally change who qualifies for a home, then we need to handle mortgages in a fundamentally different way.”

Knobloch’s bailout plan is deceptively simple. Give homeowners a revolving line of credit to make up shortfalls in their mortgage payments. The interest made by the government in doing so goes to fund Social Security.

The plan accommodates the growing portion of the population whose incomes fluctuate with the economic times. Knobloch remarks, “Traditionally, these are our people who have had to live in fear to hold on to their homes every time someone in Washington or New York screws up.”

Quotes
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Former Congressman Steve Stockman agrees. “We need to address the underlying problem. If they just changed to require a down payment we wouldn’t be in this mess.”

Charles Knobloch of the law firm Arnold & Knobloch looks at it a different way. “If we fundamentally change who qualifies for a home, then we need to handle mortgages in a fundamentally different way.”

Paul Schrager, of Schrager & Associates, comments: “This is excellent thinking and wouldn't it be great that in order to protect the SS system - all home mortgages (up to like $500K) came through the system? This way the 5 - 6% whatever goes towards the future of the SS system and until the loans that never should have been made - the one's doomed to failure - work their way through your system will still be set up to win big after say the next 3-5 years.”

Knobloch remarks, “Traditionally, these are our people who have had to live in fear to hold on to their homes every time someone in Washington or New York screws up.”

Talking Points

The proposed $700Billion bailout of home mortgages is one step in solving the current financial crisis, but it misses one more step that must be taken in order for the bailout to work. Without a way to prevent actual foreclosures, the underlying engine of the economy -- the workers -- will not be in a position to work our way out of this crisis. What is missing is a way to address the underlying mortgages.

Many of these mortgages, whether subprime or stated-income, have a basic problem in that the
homeowners cannot make the full payment on the mortgages. This is not a crisis if only three or five percent of mortgages are in danger of foreclosure, but it quickly becomes a crisis to banks, investors, and insurance companies if ten or even twenty percent of these mortgages default.

Time is what is needed. Time to allow a struggling family to keep their home while they cope with rising mortgage payments or loss of a job. If the average family in danger of default is short by, say, $300 per month on their mortgage payment, then their problem is finding $7200 over a two year period instead of facing a several hundred thousand dollar foreclosure. Is it not more rational to spend that $300 a month rather than write a check to the bankers for $700 Billion?
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Don't get us wrong. The $700 Billion bailout is designed to stablize the entire financial system today. Most of that $700 Billion can be recouped, assuming the number of foreclosures can be minimized. That is why the Knobloch plan is needed to both secure the taxpayers' $700 Billion bailout AND to keep families in their homes.

The Knobloch plan is relatively simple. Homeowners facing financial troubles assign management of their mortgage to the Social Security Administration or new government resolution trust. In their assignment, preferably done online, they also work through a simple calculation to determine what portion of their mortgage they can still pay. They make their payments, preferably through payroll deduction (if they are still working), directly to the Administration. The Administration makes the mortgage payments to the lender. The difference accumulates as an interest bearing loan paid through payroll deduction. This insures that the homeowner's payments are proportionate to their income. If temporarily laid-off, they are able to defer repayment until they are able to work again. Since the Administration is preventing default, the government's loaned money has priority in any sale of the property.

Simply stated, the homeowner essentially will be able to make a portion of their house payment on a "virtual" credit card.
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This plan is very similar to a guaranteed student loan program -- except the middlemen bankers are taken away. The loans are directly with the government or the Social Security Administration.

The Plan has some very interesting and positive ramifications. First, it keeps the homeowner responsible for their debt but removes the specter of foreclosure to both them and their lender. Second, it shores up the underlying problem with the $700 Billion bailout. Third, it buys time and spreads out those mortgages which will still default. Fourth, payments through payroll deduction will have a high rate of compliance. This means that Social Security will have a new income stream.
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Unless and until some level of security is provided to the underlying mortgages, no amount of bailout -- $700 Billion or $7 Trillion -- will solve the financial crisis. Something needs to be done immediately to stop foreclosures without giving everyone a free pass for their economic sins.

Contact / Quote Confirmation / Interviews

Charles Knobloch Charles@aklaw.com
Contact information for Congressman Stockman available on request.
Paul Schrager paul@schragerassociates.com
(c) 2008 Knobloch. All rights reserved. Contact for publication permission.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

The Presidential race is now down to just three issues.

(c) 2008 Knobloch.

With the Republican convention now comes some insight into the inner workings of the McCain strategy. From an all-but-over campaign just 18 months ago, the careful and quiet strategy of John McCain can hardly be kept too secret for too long.

The path to win is now so clearly simple, as so skillfully expressed in the speaches of Palin and McCain. In those speaches, they wooed five states in particular: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota. I imagine that stonewall Regan Republicans, like Congressman Steve Stockman, could immediately see where the game was now going. You see, regardless of positions on abortion, foreign policy, community service, and even illegal immigration -- these five states hold the electoral college key. Without these states, no one can win this year's Presidential Election.

Just as the adept John McCain picked a VP candidate practically worthy of going head-to-head alone against Obama, he also picked the three issues that control the voters of these five key states. And those issues are all tied together. What are those issues? They are the life blood of the economic United States -- the dollars of fuel that enables us to have luxuries like advanced medicine, internet, and social programs. They are: coal, steel, and automobiles.

Like Congressman Stockman, folks who grew up in the Great Lakes have this special realization burned into their sub-consciousness. Iron Ore still comes from Minnesota. Coal still comes from Pennslyvania and West Virginia. Steel is still made in Ohio, Pennsylvania. Ohio and Michigan make the automobiles out of steel. The Great Lakes provides the unique low-cost transportation to tie them all together to make this great "economic perfect-storm" possible.

The candidate who can serve and win the trust of these people, and their powerful economic interests, will win their states and win the electoral college. Social pandering to left-coast liberals and career welfare recipients of inner-city Chicago are what puts the Great Lakes into this Kingmaker position. Only coal-steel-and-automobiles have enough electoral votes to cancel out the combined force of $5 coffee sipping folks who make their living off of fantasy and virtual programming and the millions of folks whose living is derived from government social programs.
For that, McCain needed to relate to the part of America who generates the real wealth in this country. McCain needed to prove this through a moose-hunting, grandma VP who is married to a steel-worker union husband.

So, the McCain secret is now out. Sure, this election has to do with foreign policy, right-to-life, oil, and even immigration. But, when folks are losing their jobs and the nation is starving, it still boils down to coal, steel, and automobiles. Any fool Michigander knows that.

(c) 2008 Knobloch. All rights reserved. Contact for publication permission.